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Monday 3 November 2008, 6:29 PM
Software Jihad part 2
They don't dare PO the marketplace because the linchpin is the OS. If you don't put the OS on the box you aren't going to buy anything else with the Microsoft name on it. No sales – no profit.
It was a lesson MS learned yet again with the XBOX. If you can't afford the box to play it on, you won't buy the games from the company that is now selling XBOX 360's at a loss just to get customers to buy HALO 3 or 4 or whatever.
My guess is that if they really did put teeth into the WGA and kill OS desktops running illegal copies, they would really piss-off a lot of their potential world-wide market and make a lot of people think twice about putting Microsoft anything on their computers. (Actually I hope Microsoft does do something stupid like enforce their copyright!)
All in all, its an exercise in hypocrisy. They use their copyright to hammer on who they perceive as competing people and companies that offer something that just “looks like” their product and then they ignore rampant OS piracy in emerging markets.
The problem of marketing shrink-wrap operating system software has been exposed by the "black-screen of annoyance", (The BSOA, you read it here first!). Assuming the software can be made “pirate-proof”, customers who can't afford the software in the first place, really can't afford the hardware to run it. XP Pro requires stout enough hardware to effectively run, so that when the cost of the hardware is a significant amount of a person's annual income, you end up with nothing left for software. You can't pirate hardware, you can physically steal it but it still takes software to run it. So obviously the answer is to steal the software.
If Microsoft was really smart, they'd make a version of Windows XP Pro that could run from flash memory and reside in an XBOX chassis. Sell the XBOX with the OS ALREADY embedded in it. Then offer the rest of the software by subscription. Duh.
My guess is that Microsoft when they get the "cloud-computing" thing figured out will give away the OS just like Internet Exploder. Windows 7, 8, 9 whatever is installed and the first thing it will do is connect to the big Windows Live server in the sky and try to sell you 14 different sorts of software service plans like a satellite TV service. (Direct TV or DISH here in the US, I don't know what it is in the UK) That eliminates software piracy in a big way and makes the MS stockholders happy clams.
That's why Google is such a freaking nightmarish threat to MS. If Google gets there first, MS gets hind teat and will look a lot like Yahoo does now, in the game, but a poor second.
PreviousComments on this post
It's nice to thnk that MS would end up giving away the OS with the advent of cloud computing. But I think that would be a huge risk for them considering things like open office etc.
Or do you think they would lock the free OS to the cloud, meaning no access to your c/drive until you pay for a license key. Risky either way for them or us depending on which route they take.
Roger what I think they would do is set it up so that unless you wanted something more than basic web browsing it would be just that, a web browser. It probably will be loaded with advertising as well. Think Googl-ization of the Internet. ISP's will become utility companies and just a connection to the Internet. The cloud is really nothing more than the old concept of an Internet gateway or portal with the software and media content and infrastructure to really support it.
If you strip down the OS to just support a web browser interface, the software gets real simple. You need basic drivers for the IO devices: CD/DVD/BluRay RW drive, a USB 3.0 port to connect flash drives and printers, maybe a firewire port, keyboard, mouse and/or multi-touch screen, HDMI2 digital video for the LCD/OLED display screen and an interface for the XBOX 360X. (Please note there is NO PATA IDE or SCSI hard drive. There might be a eSATA IO port.) The browser gets some of the functionality that used to be in the OS. The system boots off an internal flash memory based "hard drive". The cheap ones will boot off the Internet using a new version of PXE.
I think they will go for a "locked" approach. If you wanted "premium" content or access to software packages offered through a Microsoft website, you get out your credit card and pay a subscription fee. They probably would also set it so that you couldn't take advantage of premium content from somebody else unless you paid a little more for your subscription. Microsoft has been looking for a way to generate a constant stream of cash and if they pull off the cloud computer/program access marketing model, they will have some very happy stockholders.
As far as dealing with things like Open Office, all they have to do is make their "OS"/web-browser setup so it won't install anything except Microsoft software. They are halfway there already, Windows Installer can be set through group policy to lockout unauthorized packages or those without proper security certificates. On top of that, there's nothing that says they have to be inter-compatible with other software vendor's releases.
I think that we're heading for a big divide in the user model(s), Users and others.
Most people on the Internet just web browse, play on MySpace or other social things, maybe play games. an "net appliance" works just fine for them.
Power users and programmers need "computers" and they'll be the ones that run more what we currently call Windows XP Pro, Linux and other OS's. They will have a cloud connection but not do everything in the cloud.
Here Here......
There is a another dimension though. That of retail and other sites that hold peoples card details. Do you think they would hand over responsibility for all our details to the various cloud/sky servers out there. Whilst many individual users will remain wise, you can expect big business, and governments to not really give a toss.
