Khaotic Musings
Random musings on Linux and Free and Open Source Software.
Thursday 30 April 2009, 3:10 AM
Netbook market? What netbook market?
I'm seeing a hell of a lot of babble about how Linux is 'losing the netbook market'. Well, frankly, there is no netbook market, not any longer.
First, to ensure we're all on the same page, let's define the netbook. The Eee PC 70x was the template, so let's use it as our basis. When it came out, it was priced from US$199 for the Surf version, with most units sold being the US$299 701-4G/Camera variant. This unit used solid-state storage to improve battery life; it was small and lightweight. The keyboard was perhaps too small, the screen was perhaps too small, but it functioned for its intended purpose of simple client-side content manipulation and as an Internet terminal. And it was cheap!
Today's 'default' netbook, from a name-brand vendor, delivers quasi-desktop functionality, costs as much as that vendor's (now non-existent) lower-cost notebooks/laptops, ie in the US$500 range, and we have the tier-1 name brand vendors perpetually pushing the price further uphill, introducing pointless feature-creep to justify this price-hike. With most new models coming out with 10"-12" screens, near-full-sized keyboards, these units, although very nice, cannot really be called a netbooks. Let's call them what they are - notebooks and laptops, not netbooks.
While I don't mind the slightly larger screens and keyboards, I do take issue with the price hikes vendors have surreptitiously snuck into the market. Consumers have glommed onto the concept that netbooks are cheap, and by introducing new products as 'netbooks', vendors are using that label to hoodwink consumers with needlessly expensive kit.
So, how does Linux lose in this market? In short, it doesn't - the 'netbook market' has instead morphed into something else: it's become the 'smaller form-factor notebook' market. And in this market, Microsoft has traditionally held a 95% slice (in the OEM, non-Apple realm).
Therefore, what we have here is not so much a case of Linux losing ground in the netbook market, but of Microsoft and OEM hardware partners reshaping the market into "the same ol', same ol'". It has become a market where Microsoft has substantial monopoly market advantages, dating back to 1981, and where it has honed substantial, oft-times illegal anti-competitive market capture machinery.
And yet, even in this market, now reshaped to favour Microsoft's monopoly machinery, Linux still snared 24% of 'netbook' shipments.
Think about that for a second.
The market has become just another facet of client-side PC sales, and in this market, when given a not-quite-fair-but-better-than-status-quo shot at the title, Linux grabs a quarter of it. This is much better than the 1% of the client-side/desktop market that Linux-detractors would have you believe it has in the wider market, the one completely constrained by Microsoft's monopoly.
It gives you an idea of how much market share desktop Linux might grab in a truly open, competitive landscape, given the chance.
Where to from here? Let's get back to basics. A netbook should really retail for US$200-$300, be fast booting (ie, have solid state storage) and retain a functionality focus on the simple client-side content manipulation and as an Internet access terminal, as outlined earlier.
The fact that Microsoft's traditional OEM hardware buddies aren't delivering this, leaves a strategic opening for the 'next generation' of netbook manufacturers to 'do an ASUS' and undercut the current crop, with viable 9" and 10" netbooks, selling Atom-based units with decent specs, running a full-featured Linux distribution aimed at this smaller form factor: Ubuntu Netbook Remix.
It also leaves the door wide-open for sub-$200 ARM based Linux units.
Either or both of these actions will see Linux's star rise once more, on true netbooks. As consumers, let's use our wallets to 'encourage' OEM hardware vendors as appropriate.
PreviousComments on this post
I certainly agree about the "creeping featurism" of what the manufacturers are calling "netbooks". That was a large part of what I was getting at when I wrote What Do We Expect from Netbooks a month or so ago. You are right, the biggest "problem" with netbooks is the small screen and often even smaller keyboard (honestly, some of them really do remind me of the IBM PC Jr. from 20+ years ago), I think a few of the manfacturers have proven with good design you can get a decent screen and a good keyboard still in a "netbook" sized package. My HP 2133 Mini-Note is an example of a really good keyboard, and in its successor, the HP 2140, they increased the screen size from 8.9" to 10.1" without changing the basic package. That's good engineering.
I wonder about the solid state disks, though. I'm afraid that the market in general, and Windows' massive disk space requirements in particular, have conditioned consumers to expect, or even demand, 100+ GB disk drives. Trying to include a solid state drive of such size still really pushes the price up. At the other end of the spectrum, the HP 2133 was originally offered with a 4 GB solid state drive, which is ridiculously small, but 32 GB should be plenty for what a netbook is meant to do, and a big OEM should be able to get those for a reasonable price.
Anyway, I hope you are right, and someone comes along with a real NETBOOK, at an aggressive price, and shakes up the market again. I am watching, every day, for the higher screen resolution version of the HP 2140, and I will probably buy the first one that I see. But you are right, they have pushed the price up to the point that I can easily buy a low-end notebook with a 13"-15" screen for the price that they are going to put on that 2140. Sigh.
jw
J.A. Watson "I wonder about the solid state disks, though. I'm afraid that the market in general, and Windows' massive disk space requirements in particular, have conditioned consumers to expect, or even demand, 100+ GB disk drives."
I have no issues with vendors producing a whole array of different types of small, medium and large notebook-style computing devices, with an array of different specs. What is a problem is this 'stretching' of the netbook concept and 'brand' beyond what its original focus was, namely a portable computing appliance at a very low cost.
Vendors can call these other form-factors and more fully spec'd systems whatever they like ;-)
One thing's for sure, if netbooks retained the same specification philosophy as the original Eee 70x series, with the exception of slightly larger screens and keyboards, then there would be no way that Windows would have the majority of that market.
Here in Austin, scooters are just about everywhere, especially downtown. Most of them have larger motors than 50cc, requiring a license, but they are still smaller than a "normal" motorcycle. However, what is ironic, the smaller scooters usually cost quite a bit more than the larger motorcycles, even for smaller or same-sized motors.
I say that because some of these "netbooks" coming out lately are barely smaller than some higher-powered laptops, but the hype around them are allowing companies to charge more for less and buyers are still snatching them up left and right.
What really gets me is that people are being duped into buying these more "fully featured" net books for £330 plus. Way too much for being stuck backwards in time with an atom processor. OK it's fine if you know what your doing and it's what you really want, but it's not really fair when from £275 plus you can get yourself a nice and fairly quick core 2 duo all singing and dancing laptop....grrrrr!
kingttx said "I say that because some of these "netbooks" coming out lately are barely smaller than some higher-powered laptops, but the hype around them are allowing companies to charge more for less and buyers are still snatching them up left and right."
Indeed.
Not only are these falsely-branded 'netbooks' not really netbooks, merely donning the attire of netbooks just to share the aura for that class of system, but they're also often terrible value.
About a year ago, in this country (Australia) you could buy a fully functional Acer laptop for around AU$500 (running Linux no less!). Now, most 'netbooks', featuring less capability, sell for around AU$750.
The only reasonable-cost/reasonable-function netbook on offer is this unit from Kogan, which once again is running Linux. None of the other venodors is bothering to ship Linux units in Australia.
