What will Google Wave kill first?

Google's new Wave service is billed as revolutionising e-mail. But it might not be existing e-mail and messaging vendors that feel the pinch first.

You've probably heard about Google Wave. Revealed at the Google I/O developer conference in May, it demos Google's evolution of e-mail, a method of communication that hasn't really moved on any in 40 years. The techies were cock-a-hoop and quite a few of those who've seen videos of the demo are just as excited.

(Here's a great 10 minute breakdown of the key features:

I fall into the camp labelled "Excited" as it genuinely seems to bring together the best of e-mail, instant messaging and newer initiatives like Twitter. Move to Wave and you could have all three working in harmony in your browser. So who will fear Google Wave most? Microsoft, which dominates the e-mail client market? Companies like Yahoo, AOL and Skype who depend on instant messaging for users? Or even Twitter for taking its concept and integrating it as just one form of conversation?

Well, probably none of these as much as traditional forums, which I would elect are likely to be first in the firing line.

Now not everyone uses forums. They seem strangely old fashioned, being evolutions, as they are, of bulletin boards which have been around as long as the internet has. But they are also a great example of User Generated Content and all that Web 2.0 is about.

As a big fan of social media I should love forums; and I am active on quite a few, which I won't name here. But I also hate them, because in amongst the useful posts is inevitably hundreds of contributions from people who have an opinion on a topic and know enough to be dangerous. If you're looking for value, you need to spend some time separating the wheat from the chaff.

And this is where Google Wave could come in. Imagine a web-based forum where you can attach yourself to specific topics, because you are interested or have expertise. The topic may be born on the forums site, mainly in order that anyone can start it and watch the thread evolve; but what if your contribution could be done within Wave? As your input is needed, so the Wave flashes to let you know. Contributions from others add to the Wave; and because each contribution comes from a "real person" rather than a masked identity on a website there is a chance their input will be a little better considered. You get what you need without ever needing to leave your Wave browser window.

And that's the thing: if this was a way to tap the thoughts of others, en masse as it were, why would people ever spend time on forums wading through the rubbish to try and find the stuff Wave could easily locate for them with a widget and a ready method of reading and contributing to the thread?

Forums could already be considered a speciality interest lacking the fashion of Twitter or, now, Wave. But could Google Wave kill them stone dead?

I'd be interested in your thoughts.

Ian Hendry
CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ
http://www.wecando.biz